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为加速煤层气资源的勘探开发,本文利用经济学方法研究了未来30年开发利用我国南方煤层气资源所需成本及其产生的综合效益。研究结果表明,预计2015年我国南方煤层气产量将达到1×108m3左右,此后煤层气产量进入快速增长阶段,2040年煤层气产量达到45×108m3。在此基础上,利用价值法计算了未来30年内开发利用我国南方煤层气资源的成本及其所产生的综合效益。结果表明:开发利用这些煤层气资源所产生的综合效益远大于开发成本,是我国南方地区常规天然气的现实接替资源。
In order to accelerate the exploration and development of coalbed methane resources, this paper studies the cost of the exploitation and utilization of coalbed methane resources in the South China in the next 30 years and the comprehensive benefits it produces. The results show that the output of coalbed methane in the southern part of China is expected to reach about 1 × 108m3 in 2015, and the production of coalbed methane has entered a rapid growth stage since then, with the coalbed methane output reaching 45 × 108m3 in 2040. On this basis, the cost of exploiting and utilizing the coalbed methane resources in the south of China in the next 30 years and the comprehensive benefits arising therefrom are calculated using the value method. The results show that the comprehensive benefit of exploitation and utilization of these CBM resources is far greater than the development cost and is the realistic replacement resource of conventional natural gas in southern China.