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与大多数人的看法一样,我认为目前核力量的平衡已经有了一个时期,而限制战略武器会谈第一阶段（SALT-1）,协议对不久的将来的核力量的平衡有了保证。此外,我认为目前的核力量的平衡是有两个困素促成的。第一,双方已拥有“制止危机的能力（Crisis stability）”,也就是说,在军事危机中。一方不能依靠先发制人的袭击获得更多的生存概率,从而不会导致发动先发制人的行动。第二,目前核力量平衡也就是“军备竞赛”意义的稳定,也就是说,一方不能很快地获取一种高质量的、新式的武器系统,取得压倒优势的局面,从而对这方面工作也没有很大的吸引力。
Like most people’s opinions, I think the balance of nuclear forces is now at a stage where the SALT-1 is limited and the agreement guarantees the balance of nuclear forces in the near future. In addition, I think the current balance of nuclear forces is driven by two factors. First, both parties already have “Crisis stability,” that is, in a military crisis. One side can not rely on preemptive strikes to gain more survival chances and thus will not lead to a preemptive move. Second, at present, the balance of nuclear forces is also the meaning of the “arms race.” In other words, one party can not quickly obtain a high-quality, new-type weapon system and obtain overwhelming advantages. Therefore, Not very attractive.