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本文基于系统动力学的理论,建立了由供应商、批发商和零售商组成的三级供应链模型,引入了一种强制碳排放政策,通过仿真分析了生产延迟和期望库存对供应链总成本和碳排放的影响。研究表明,在强制排放模型中,三级供应链系统受牛鞭效应的影响,随着生产延迟时间的增加,供应商的库存波动会加剧,供应链总排放随之增加,而供应链总成本先增加后减少。而随着期望库存持续时间增加,每个成员的碳排放随之增加,供应链总成本也以类似程度增加,虽然期望库存持续时间最小对供应链整体是有利的,但并不是对每位成员相对有利。最后以期望库存持续时间不同分为三个层次,说明不同的碳排放额度应该选择不同的生产延迟时间和期望库存持续时间组合。
Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper establishes a three-level supply chain model consisting of suppliers, wholesalers and retailers, and introduces a mandatory carbon emission policy. Through simulation, it analyzes the impact of production delay and expected inventory on total supply chain costs And the impact of carbon emissions. The research shows that in the compulsory emission model, the three-level supply chain system is affected by the bullwhip effect. As the production delay increases, the inventory volatility of suppliers will increase and the total supply chain emissions will increase. The total supply chain cost First increase and then decrease. And as the expected inventory duration increases, the carbon emission of each member increases accordingly, and the total cost of the supply chain also increases to a similar extent. Although the expected minimum inventory duration is beneficial to the whole supply chain, it is not for each member Relatively favorable. Finally, we divided the expected inventory duration into three levels, indicating that different carbon emission quotas should choose different combination of production delay time and expected inventory duration.