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为了提高实时洪水预报的精度,在产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法的基础上,着重考虑了其局限性,提出了基于系统响应理论的分水源误差修正方法,将新安江模型汇流部分视为一个系统,首先对实测流量进行实时水源分割,得到各水源产流形成的流量过程;然后应用系统响应理论,计算得到各水源产流对应的动态系统响应曲线,对地面径流和壤中流进行修正,再用修正后的结果重新计算出流过程,从而达到实时修正的效果;最后通过理想案例和实际案例对该修正方法进行了检验。结果表明,该方法修正效果明显,有效提高了洪水预报精度。
In order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting, based on the correction method of dynamic response curve of runoff error, the limitations of this method are mainly considered and a correction method of water diversion error based on system response theory is proposed. The confluence of Xin’anjiang model is regarded as A system of real-time water source segmentation of the measured flow is firstly used to obtain the flow process of each source of water flow; then the system response theory is used to calculate the dynamic system response curve of each source of water flow to correct the surface runoff and soil flow, And then use the corrected results to recalculate the outflow process, so as to achieve the effect of real-time correction. Finally, the correction method is tested through the ideal case and the actual case. The results show that this method has obvious correction effect and effectively improves flood forecasting accuracy.