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本文运用上海市1982-2011年住宅投资和GDP数据,使用协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正模型研究上海市住宅投资和经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,住宅投资和经济增长之间存在一种长期动态均衡关系;经济增长对住宅投资存在单向的显著可信的Granger因果关系,上海市的时间序列数据不支持“住宅引领增长假说”。该结论对于针对各地区制定不同的住宅地产调控政策,具有一定的启发意义。
This article uses Shanghai’s residential investment and GDP data from 1982 to 2011, and uses cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model to study the relationship between residential investment and economic growth in Shanghai. The results show that there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium between residential investment and economic growth. There is a one-way significant and credible Granger causality between economic growth and residential investment. Shanghai’s time series data do not support the “residential leading growth hypothesis ”. This conclusion is of certain enlightenment for the formulation of different residential real estate regulation and control policies for all regions.