论文部分内容阅读
利用基于GIS平台的长期水文影响模型(long-termhydrological impact analysis,L-THIA GIS),选取太湖上游的西苕溪流域作为研究区域,在验证L-THIA模型在该流域径流模拟有效性的基础上,利用不同时期(1985年和2000年)土地利用状况变化分析城市化对径流的影响;并应用情景分析的方法预测未来不同的土地利用变化所导致的径流变化情况。研究结果表明:城镇用地产生的径流量要大于非城镇用地;1985-2000年城市建设用地面积扩张75%,径流系数相应增加了1.4%;未来城市建设用地的不断扩张,当城市面积分别达到流域面积的25%和45%时,径流系数将可能达到0.68和0.79。因此,城市扩张导致的不透水面积的增加将成为改变区域水文效应主要因素之一,需要进行合理的城市和土地利用规划限制城市的盲目扩张。
Based on the long-termhydrological impact analysis (L-THIA GIS) based on GIS platform, the Xitiaoxi basin in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake was selected as the research area. Based on the validation of L-THIA model in this basin, Using the changes of land use in different periods (1985 and 2000), this paper analyzes the impact of urbanization on runoff; and uses the method of scenario analysis to predict the future runoff changes caused by different land use changes. The results show that the runoff of urban land use is greater than that of non-urban land use. From 1985 to 2000, urban construction land area expanded by 75% and runoff coefficient increased by 1.4%. In the future, urban construction land continued to expand. With 25% and 45% area, the runoff coefficient will likely reach 0.68 and 0.79. Therefore, the increase of impervious area caused by urban expansion will be one of the main factors to change the regional hydrological effect, and reasonable urban and land use planning will be needed to limit the urban blind expansion.