论文部分内容阅读
油价在深刻地影响了今年国际贸易增速的同时,也成为明年全球贸易增长的最大不确定因素。 今年全球贸易增速将有所放缓, 贸易不平衡性在石油价格的影响下进 一步加剧。明年全球贸易与今年将大 体持平,增速在6％-7％左右。 WTO预计,今年全球贸易增速 约为6．5％,与去年9％的增速相比有 所放缓,其主要受回落的世界经济影 响。而影响世界经济的原因,则源于 油价持续攀升、美元汇价由疲转强、 发达国家间利差扩大以及贸易发展不 平衡等问题的困扰。
Oil prices, which have profoundly affected the growth of international trade this year, have also become the biggest uncertainty of global trade growth next year. Global trade growth will slow down this year and trade imbalances will further aggravate under the influence of oil prices. Next year, global trade will be roughly the same as this year with a growth rate of 6% -7%. The WTO estimates that the global trade growth this year will be around 6.5%, a slowdown from the 9% growth rate last year, which is mainly affected by the declining world economy. The reasons for the impact on the world economy stem from the continuous rise of oil prices, the weakness of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the widening spread between developed countries and the unbalanced trade development.