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目的了解2005—2013年宝鸡市肾综合征出血热(简称出血热)流行特征,并建立出血热发病预测模式。方法对宝鸡市2005—2013年的出血热疫情资料用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析,利用历史数据建立预测模型。结果 2005—2013年共报告出血热2 233例,年平均发病率为6.67/10万,病死率为0.54%,发病季节性特点明显。发病职业以农民为主(1 799例),占发病总数的88.54%,发病年龄以40~59岁年龄段最高(1 128例),占发病总数的50.52%,男女性别比为3∶1,自回归移动平均模型预测提示近年出血热发病可能仍处于高发水平。结论宝鸡市出血热发病进入一个发病周期,近年发病可能仍处于高发水平,应对重点地区、重点人群及时采取防控措施,自回归移动平均模型对预测宝鸡市出血热有一定的实用意义。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (referred to as hemorrhagic fever) in Baoji city from 2005 to 2013 and to establish the prediction model of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever. Methods The epidemiological data of haemorrhagic fever from 2005 to 2013 in Baoji City were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method and the historical data were used to establish the prediction model. Results A total of 2233 cases of hemorrhagic fever were reported from 2005 to 2013, with an average annual incidence of 6.67 / 100 000 and a case fatality rate of 0.54%. Seasonal seasonal features were obvious. The main occupational diseases were peasants (1 799 cases), accounting for 88.54% of the total cases. The age of onset was the highest in the age group of 40-59 years (1128 cases), accounting for 50.52% of the total. The sex ratio was 3:1. Autoregressive moving average model predictions suggest that the incidence of hemorrhagic fever in recent years may still be at high levels. Conclusion The incidence of hemorrhagic fever in Baoji City has entered a period of onset. In recent years, the incidence may still be at a high level. In response to key areas and key populations, timely prevention and control measures should be taken. The autoregressive moving average model is of practical significance for the prediction of hemorrhagic fever in Baoji City.