6月份，工业增加值、固定资产投资和外贸出口强劲增长，经济运行继续保持良好态势。上半年GDP增长7.8%，总体形势好于预期，预示着今年的情况好于去年，全年经济增长将超过7.5%。但是，消费增长趋缓，消费物价走低，通货紧缩持续，下岗失业增加，危及社会稳定，经济发展中深层次的矛盾有所加剧。考虑到财政政策骑虎难下，货币政策难有作为，再加上国际经济中的不确定因素，只有做出重大的政策和体制调整，方能继续保持和发展目前的良好态势。
　　出口的强劲增长是今年经济增长的一大亮点，其原因主要有：（1）受出口政策的有力推动。今年初有关部门加大了出口退税力度，同时放宽了企业进出口经营权，增加了出口信贷（上半年增长30.2%），再加上一些地方纷纷采取了一些刺激出口的措施，调动了企业出口积极性。（2）得益于美国经济复苏和美元贬值，上半年我国对美出口的高速增长（１9.3％）就是证明。（3）随着跨国公司加快将生产基地向中国转移，外商投资企业出口增长（17.9%）强劲，占总出口的比重达51.7%，在加工贸易出口中占据了绝对优势（74%）。然而，政策空间已经不大，美国经济也是险象环生，美国股市下挫，债市也出现下跌，财政赤字和贸易逆差增大，特别是公司违法造假，“美国面临着1930年代以来最严重的信心危机”（美联储副主席布兰德）。考虑到去年外商协议投资增速缓慢，再加上贸易摩察的增大和更多的非关税壁垒，看来下半年的出口难以保持上半年的增长势头。
　　真正促使债券市场风险释放的是股票市场政策的变化。6月24日国有股停止减持消息发布后，市场游资短线抽逃转移，造成债市“跳水”和股市“井喷”。几乎是在一夜之间完成了股市与债市之间的冷热转换，而国有股减持政策充当了实现这种转换的阀门。
　　当然，在此之前，证券市场监管当局的几项重大的改革措施也为资金涌向股市铺平了道路。第一，关于新股按市值配售的规定，恢复并完善向二级市场投资者配售新股的政策，可以将一级市场上原来的无风险投资收益逐步转移到二级市场投资者手中。这既有利于恢复和坚定投资者的持股信心，也有利于对二级市场已有的被套牢者进行一定的利益补偿，吸引场外增量资金重新入场。对于这些资金来说，二级市场即使微利甚至亏损，都可以通过一级市场的低价配售获得补贴。


　　第二，最近推出的180指数对于稳定股市也有作用，这些公司具有大盘蓝筹股特征，市值占沪市的半壁江山，且业绩较好，6月28日为基期的平均市盈率在36倍左右，具备一定的投资价值。180指数的推出为大资金进入铺平了道路，改变了以往大盘股无人问津的格局，对于大资金来说，大盘股的价值是双重的，不仅本身市盈率较低，具有一定的投资价值，而且对一级市场配售极为有利。
　　第三，提高增发门槛与停止减持国有股是导致股市“井喷”的直接原因。然而，停止减持国有股，等于承认了中国股市目前股权结构不合理的现状。国有股流通和交易的问题并没有解决，而只是搁置而已。从目前的情况来看，国有股减持的很多重大问题并没有搞清楚，如，减持的目的是什么，是国有股的交易和流通，还是其他（包括套现和充实社保基金）？国有股减持是在深沪股市内进行，还是在市场外进行？能否使新上市公司不再背负减持的包袱？减持价格是交由市场和股东分散议定，还是由政府集中定价？不弄清楚并妥善处理这些问题，我们还会为这一次的失误再支付代价。
　　从上半年债券市场的火爆到6月24日股市井喷，市场在向我们传达怎样的信息呢？一句话：储蓄过剩，投资不畅；资金淤积，效率低下。
　　因此，如何将储蓄有效转化为投资是十分迫切的课题。解决的办法不仅是疏通银行的信贷渠道，改变过于向大城市和大企业倾斜的信贷体制，而且要靠多层次金融市场的细分和竞争。对于这个问题目前的认识还不一致。四大国有商业银行热衷于股份制改造和分拆上市。其实，这条路是走不通的，这既解决不了国有商业银行的治理问题，也会把股市再次搞砸。难道国有股减持的教训还不够吗。
　　我们曾多次讨论发展中小金融、民间金融和社区金融的问题。一是让民间资本进入，二是让国有商业银行的基层分支机构独立，才是解决问题的正确途径。与此同时，改革商业银行内部的机构设置和运行规则，实行扁平化管理，加强各业务部门的垂直联系和信息沟通，改变行长对上层负责的运作方式，缩短决策管理半径，减少信息不对称，真正提高银行服务的水平和金融活动的效率。
　　
　　Economy Better than Expected, Deep-rooted Problems Remain
　　——An analysis of the economy in June and first half year
　　By Zhang Shuguang, director, Beijing Tianze Economic Research Institute
　　Wang Xinbo, researcher, Beijing Tianze Economic Research Institute
　　
　　In June, industrial production, capital spending and foreign trade all reported robust growth rates, indicating that the national economy continued to perform well. In the first half of this year, GDP was up 7.8% over the same period of last year, better than expected. Growth of the national economy is expected to reach 7.5% for the whole year, better than last year.
　　On the other hand, however, growth in consumer spending is slowing down, prices have dropped, deflation is continuing, and the rate of unemployment is rising to endanger social stability. These indicate that deep-rooted problems in the economy have somewhat exacerbated. Given the fact that the existing proactive monetary policy can hardly accomplish anything, plus uncertainties in the world economy, the Chinese economy can hardly maintain its high-growth momentum unless major policy and structural adjustments are made.
　　Strong growth in exports is a major factor contributing to national economic growth so far this year. Major reasons are: First, since the beginning of this year, relevant departments have done a better job of giving tax refund to exporters, given the import-export right to more enterprises and increased export credit (up 30.2% in the first half year). Localities have also taken measures to stimulate exports. Second, Chinese exports have benefited from a recovery of the US economy and the depreciation of the US dollar. The high growth (19.3%) in US-bound Chinese exports in the first half year is proof of this. And third, with more transnational corporations transferring their production bases to China, the export of foreign-funded enterprises in China has increased sharply (17.9%), to account for 51.7% of China‘s total exports. In processing-based exports, their exports accounted for 74%.
　　But there is not much room for policies to play a promotional role. The US economy is encountering one difficulty after another. The US stock market is plunging; its bond market has also gone down; the financial deficit of the US government has increased, and so has the foreign trade of the United States. In addition, the US has been hit by a series of fraud cases involving big corporations. The United States faces the most serious credibility crisis since the 1930s, in the words of a vice chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Given the fact that growth in contractual foreign investment in China slowed down last year, plus increased trade frictions and more non-tariff barriers set up elsewhere against Chinese goods, it seems difficult for Chinese exports to maintain their growth momentum of the first half year.
　　What really causes risk release on the bond market is a policy change for the stock market. After a government decision to stop reducing state holdings in listed companies was made public on June 24, idle funds on the bond market fled for short-term speculation on the stock market, causing the bond market to dive and the stock market to skyrocket. Capital flow between the two markets was completed almost overnight, in which the decision to stop reducing state shares in listed companies served as the valve to realize the flow.
　　Of course, some substantial measures previously taken by the securities authorities also opened channels for capital to flow from the bond market to the stock market.
　　First of all, resumption of the policy on new share placement to investors on the secondary market on the basis of the market value of shares they hold helps transfer almost risk-free investment returns on the primary market to investors on the secondary market. This on the one hand helps rekindle and consolidate the share holding confidence of investors and on the other hand is a kind of interest compensation to investors who have been trapped at high prices on the secondary market. Besides, the measure will attract funds already quitting the market to re-enter the market. For these funds, even if there is mean profit or even loss on the secondary market, they will be able to get compensation from subscribing new shares placed at low prices on the primary market.
　　Secondly, the newly-launched Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index plays a positive role in stabilizing the stock market. Components of the index are mostly bluechips with large capitalization. Their market capitalization accounts for some half of the Shanghai market‘s total, and their average price earnings ratio, take June 28 as the base date, stood at some 36 multiples, boasting considerable investment value. The launch of the 180 Index facilitates the entry and quit of big players, which puts an end to a situation where no one used to show interest in bluechips with large capitalization. For big players, stocks of large capitalization boast dual values: one is that their own price earnings ratios are low enough to have considerable investment value; and the other is that they boast advantages in subscribing new shares placed on the primary market.
　　Finally, a higher threshold for additional stock issues and halt of the policy to reduce state holdings in listed companies are direct causes triggering the skyrocketing of the stock market. Nevertheless, the halt to reduce state holdings in listed companies is as a matter of fact an acceptance of the current irrational equity structure on the Chinese stock market. In other words, the question of making state-held shares in listed companies negotiable has not been resolved. It has been merely shelved. So far, many questions are still unclear with regard to the move to reduce state share holdings in listed companies. Examples: What‘s the purpose of the move? Does it mean negotiation of state-held shares or others (say, to cash and replenish social security funds)? Will the move be implemented on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets or outside the markets? Will newly listed companies no longer involve such a problem? Will prices of state shares put on sale be decided by the market and shareholders or by the government? If these questions are not made clear and solved properly, there may be heavy cost again.
　　The shift from the half-year bull on the bond market to a sharp rise of the stock market on June 24 is a reflection of excessive savings, inadequate investment channels, a stockpiling of funds and low efficiency. Therefore, how to effectively convert savings into investment is now an urgent subject to be addressed.
　　Solutions should not be limited to smoothing the credit channels of banks. Instead, mutually competitive multi-level financial markets are necessary. At the moment, a unanimous recognition of this has not yet been reached on this.
　　The Big Four state-owned commercial banks (namely, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank) are busy with their shareholding transformation and partial listing programs. As a matter of fact, this is not the right road as it will not be able to solve problems connected with the governance structure of the banks. On the contrary, it may again cause a dive of the stock market as the plan to reduce state shares in listed companies did.
　　The best solution is to let in non-governmental capital and make the grassroots branches of the state-owned banks independent. In the meantime, the internal setup and operating rules of the commercial banks should be reformed to really raise the service level of banking services and the efficiency of financial activities.