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由于供应链终端需求的不确定性,需求信息在向上级传递过程中逐渐放大,容易造成“牛鞭效应”.通过分析线性供应链的系统特征,并研究其稳定性的条件,并运用不同的策略,对其进行仿真模拟,结果表明:综合考虑近邻、次近邻的库存需求和终端消费者的需求变化时各供应商的库存波动得到明显的改善.在仿真模拟结果中,最大库存波动值是2.48,且考虑终端消费者的权重是0.248时,波动消失,说明最大库存波动值对终端消费者的敏感性较强,结果表明改进后的策略能抑制牛鞭效应对供应商库存波动的影响.
Due to the uncertainty of the demand of the supply chain terminal, the demand information gradually enlarges in the process of transmission to the higher level, which easily lead to the “bullwhip effect.” By analyzing the system characteristics of the linear supply chain and studying the conditions of its stability, The results show that the inventory fluctuations of all suppliers are obviously improved when the inventory demand of neighbors, sub-neighbors and end consumers are taken into account.In the simulation results, the largest inventory fluctuation The value is 2.48, and the volatility disappears when the weight of the terminal consumer is 0.248, indicating that the maximum inventory fluctuation value is more sensitive to the terminal consumers. The results show that the improved strategy can restrain the bullwhip effect on the supplier inventory fluctuations influences.