论文部分内容阅读
基于贵州省黔东南地区1961-2008年1-12月16个台站的冰雹观测资料,引入表征冰雹事件时间分配特征的新参数——冰雹事件集中度和集中期,在此基础上分析了黔东南冰雹事件的基本时空分配特征,并利用Morlet小波分析方法、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法和线性倾向估计方法。结果表明:黔东南冰雹事件集中度和集中期的平均和异常空间分布存在很大区域差异,根据地形划分为东西南北4个关键区域;从时间演变来看,各区冰雹事件集中度和集中期均存在较长周期变化,其长周期中又包含短周期,均表现出显著的年代际周期振荡;另一方面,冰雹事件变得越来越不集中,除南区和东北区冰雹事件集中期有推迟趋势外,其余大部地区提前趋势明显。
Based on the hail observation data of 16 stations in Southeast Guizhou Province from January 1961 to January 2008 in Guizhou Province, a new parameter that characterizes the time distribution of hail events is introduced, which is the concentration and concentration period of hail events. Based on this analysis, Southeast hail event distribution characteristics of the basic and the use of Morlet wavelet analysis method, Mann-Kendall mutation test method and linear tendency estimation method. The results show that there are great regional differences in the concentrations of hail events and the mean and anomalies during the concentration period in the southeastern Guizhou Province. According to the terrain, the key areas are divided into four key areas: east, west, south and north. From the time evolution, the hail concentration and concentration period There is a long period of change, and its long period also includes short period, both show significant interdecadal oscillation; on the other hand, hail events become less and less concentrated, except for the concentration of hail events in the southern and northeast regions Postponed the trend, most of the rest of the obvious trend in advance.