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目的探索建立适合广东特点的耐多药结核病的预警模型,以期为全省乃至全国耐药、耐多药结核病疫情的控制,国家10年规划的顺利实施提供科学、可靠的理论依据。方法通过利用控制论的理论知识,用加权平均方法对耐多药结核病死亡率、发现率、治愈率等参数进行估计。建立微分方程。结果使用现实的参数,模拟和衍生基本再生数(R0)的阈值,构建耐多药肺结核病传播动力学模型。结论耐多药预警模型的构建及指标校正有赖于完善的耐药性监测资料,作为耐多药肺结核预警模型的初探,将为耐多药结核病防治工作的推进抛砖引玉。
Objective To explore an early warning model of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) that is suitable for Guangdong and to provide a scientific and reliable theoretical basis for the successful implementation of the national 10-year plan for the control of drug-resistant and multi-drug resistant TB in the province and the whole country. Methods By using the theoretical knowledge of cybernetics, we used the weighted average method to estimate the MDR-TB mortality, detection rate and cure rate. Establish differential equations. Results Realistic parameters were used to simulate and derive the threshold of basic reproductive number (R0) to construct a multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis transmission kinetic model. Conclusion The establishment of multi-drug multi-drug early warning model and the correction of its index depend on the comprehensive monitoring data of drug resistance. As a preliminary study on the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis early warning model, the multidrug early warning model will promote the prevention and treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.