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本文通过构建包含农业、工业和服务业的三部门非平衡增长理论模型,定量分析了恩格尔效应、鲍莫尔效应和资本深化效应对我国产业结构转型的影响。数值模拟分析表明,改革开放以来,资本深化效应对我国农业比重下降的贡献率达69.5%,恩格尔效应对服务业比重上升的贡献率达66.3%,而鲍莫尔效应对产业结构转型的贡献很小。同时,随着我国经济社会发展改革的演进,恩格尔效应对产业结构转型的贡献率不断下降,鲍莫尔效应的贡献率先升后降并在上世纪90年代达到峰值,资本深化效应的贡献率呈上升趋势。这意味着短期内我国仍需依靠投资促进资本深化调结构,而中期和长期内则需分别通过促进居民收入平稳增长及技术创新等推动产业结构转型。
This article quantitatively analyzes the impact of the Engel’s, Baum’ele, and Capital-deepening effects on the industrial restructuring in China by building a model for the unbalanced growth in agriculture, industry and service sectors. Numerical simulation shows that since the reform and opening up, the contribution of capital deepening to the decline of the proportion of China’s agriculture has reached 69.5%, and the contribution of the ENGEL to the increase of the proportion of the service industry has reached 66.3%. The contribution of the Baumoll’s effect to the transformation of the industry structure is very small. At the same time, with the development of China’s economic and social reform, the contribution rate of the Engel’s effect to the industrial restructuring has been declining. The contribution rate of the Baumol effect first and then dropped and peaked in the 1990s. The contribution rate of capital deepening effect was Upward trend. This means that in the short term, our country still needs to rely on investment to deepen the adjustment of capital structure, while in the medium and long term, it is necessary to promote the restructuring of the industrial structure by promoting steady growth in resident income and technological innovation, respectively.