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通过与观测资料和20世纪历史气候模拟试验结果(NoINT)的对比分析,评估了BCC_CSM1.1年代际预测试验(INT)中对全球海表温度(SST)年代际变化的回报能力。分析结果显示:(1)INT试验模拟的全球平均SST增暖趋势比NoINT的更加接近观测;(2)其在热带大西洋、热带西太平洋和热带印度洋有较高的预测技巧;(3)对于太平洋年代际振荡2个关键区——北太平洋和热带中东太平洋,模式的预测技巧较低,且海洋初始化的作用也很小;(4)在热带南印度洋,INT的预测技巧普遍高于NoINT,在提前3~6年和4~7年时技巧最高。这些结论与基于其他模式得到的已有研究结果类似,但是BCC模式对北大西洋,特别是其副极地区域的预测技巧明显低于其他模式。BCC模式无法合理模拟出北大西洋SST与热盐环流间的交替变化规律,可能是其预测技巧偏低的原因。
Through the comparison with the observed data and the 20th century historical climate simulation test result (NoINT), the ability to report the decadal change of the global sea surface temperature (SST) in the BCC_CSM1.1 Meteorological Forecasting Experiment (INT) was evaluated. The results of the analysis show that: (1) the global mean SST warming trend simulated by the INT experiment is closer to observation than that of NoINT; (2) it has higher prediction skills in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean; (3) (2) In the tropical South Indian Ocean, the prediction skills of INT are generally higher than those of NoINT, and in the North Pacific and tropical central and eastern Pacific, the mode prediction skills are low and the role of ocean initialization is also small; 3 to 6 years in advance and 4 to 7 years when the highest skill. These conclusions are similar to those of previous studies based on other models, but the BCC model has significantly lower forecasting skills for the North Atlantic, especially its sub-polar regions, than the other models. The BCC model can not reasonably simulate the alternating variation between the North Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation, which may be the reason for the low prediction skills.