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经济发展与区域信息鸿沟
效率优先，兼顾公平，几乎成为20世纪70年代后期以来我国制定国家经济发展战略，尤其是区域发展战略的基本定律。应当说，中国的发展是“成功”的：改革开放以来，我国经济实现了持续高速增长，创造了20世纪世界经济的奇迹：GDP由1980年的4514亿元上升为2004年的近136500亿元，年均增长达9％以上，国家综合国力迈入国际六强行列；国际贸易额由1980年的380亿美元增加到2004年11547亿美元，进入全球前三；外汇储备，1980年仅29亿美元，2004年底达6099亿美元，坐二望一。
但是，或许是由于“摸着石头过河”的缘故，我们并没有预计到这种发展可能带来的严重负效应，或者说我们没有适时地调整发展模式，特别是我们可能在发展过程之中出现了“效率超重、公平失重”的偏误，导致我们的畅享发展成果的同时，确实面临着许多棘手的“发展问题”。在一些人看来，发展，特别是经济发展似乎就是现代化、也是现代化的终点，他们看重产出，特别是有形的产出，对投入和产出的分配关注甚少，从而导致了严重的环境问题、资源问题、生态问题以及社会问题。比如，我们的经济发展十分迅速，但是我们的社会发展、文化发展却相对严重滞后；我们的工业化发展迅速，但是城市化、服务产业的发展十分滞后（见表），第三产业和城市化水平比国际同水平国家低10－15个百分点；我们的社会财富急剧增加，但社会分配不公，贫富悬殊的问题日益严重，基尼系数由20世纪80年代初的0.25缓慢增加，90年代初为0.3，90年代末急剧扩大为0.45， 2002年为0.48，2003年为0.52，而国际公认的临界点仅仅是0.40；三农问题、城乡问题、区域问题，等等。
我国幅员辽阔，人口众多。我们不能期望实现我国社会经济发展的区域协调。因为区域经济发展的理论告诉我们，区域的发展均衡仅仅是一种“乌托邦”，不均衡才是真实地、现实的，也只有通过不均衡的发展才能够解决区域经济发展的不均衡问题：即通过新的不均衡来取代旧的不均衡。同时，审美学告诉人们，残缺才是最美的，断臂的维纳斯更让人欣赏。当然，这种残缺的痛苦也只有身处残缺之中的人才能够体味。
有一个人们熟知的故事：记者在西部一个偏远山村采访了一位正在放羊的孩子，记者问他：长大以后准备做什么？孩子回答：放羊、结婚、生小孩。记者再问：生了小孩以后准备让他干什么？这位牧羊童答道：放羊。信息给人视野、给人理想，信息给人以发展的期望。如果我们容忍这种信息鸿沟继续存在并扩大，我们就在践踏最基本的人权：生存与发展权。
Energy Price Shocks and Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy
Shih-Mo Lin Chung Yuan Christian University
This paper modifies a typical real business cycle(RBC)model with indivisible labor by explicitly including energy as a productive input and modeling the relative price of energy as an exogenous random process. In closed models, the production technology of firms is described by alternative specifications, which include Cobb-Douglas, regular CES and nested CES functions, respectively. Our simulation results show that, no matter what production function is, energy consumption and employment are pro-cycle, and oil prices are counter-cycle. When a positive energy price shocks occurs, energy consumption and employment all appear to be negatively affected. Furthermore, in the long run, this shock will cause the employment to rise higher than its initial steady state. From the results of simulation in the open economy model, we find that energy consumption, net exports and employment are pro-cyclical, and oil price is counter-cyclical. When a positive energy price shock happened, it has a negative influence on energy consumption, output, net exports and employment, and a positive influence on investment. When a negative world interest rate shock happened, it has a negative influence on energy consumption, output and employment, and a positive influence on net exports.
East Asia Monetary Cooperation: Progress and Prospects
Lu, Ding
Since the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-98, regional monetary cooperation involving ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea) countries has made important progress, highlighted by the Chiang Mai Initiative (2000), a currency swap agreement among these economies, and the Asian Bond Initiative (2002). Meanwhile, regional economic integration has gained great impetus from the free trade pact between ASEAN and China. This paper reviews the progress of East Asia monetary cooperation and the prospects for such cooperation to move towards greater monetary-finance integration. In particular, we will discuss the pros and cons for the regional economies to form a monetary union as they tear down intra-region trade barriers through free trade agreements. According to the thesis of Optimal Currency Area, cost-benefit analysis of monetary union largely depends on whether the shocks in the union zone are symmetric or not and on the degree of intra-region labour mobility. Economic integration will certainly enhance intra-region specialization as well as factor mobility. It is, however, controversial whether the net effect will make the region more suitable for a monetary union. Based on the review of relevant literature, this paper will present some preliminary empirical evidence and explore the ways of further research.
Developing Energy Security and Cooperation in Asia
Katsuhiko Suetsugu
Secretary General, Asia-Pacific Energy Forum
To enhance the energy security in Asia, it is important to clarify the policy goals for the energy security. China's continuing economic growth and increasing energy demand, increasing oil consumption in the US market are the factors to be considered for the energy security policies. Most of the countries in Asia are importing petroleum from Middle East by ships and transportation by sea-lane, which needs to be secured for the stable economic growth of each member economy. In addition to this, geopolitical, military and diplomatic factors in Asia should be addressed to minimizing the new risks for the energy security in this region.
It is essential that China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN countries would cooperate to create the guideline for the collective energy security in this region including capacity of energy supply, strategic stockpile of oil, formation of market mechanism, and better technology transfer. The risks of climate change resulting from energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and the energy crisis have been overlapping these days. It is mandatory that the policies for energy security need to be designed to reduce each nation誷 emissions of greenhouse gases and protect its natural environment.
Japan would like to contribute Asian energy security by enabling nuclear power to continue to play a meaningful role in meeting future energy needs, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
长安开门红，开门红世界
4月16日,众多长安俱乐部会员及十余家知名企业云集长安俱乐部，共同见证了长安俱乐部又一次辉煌腾飞。
两扇古老的朱红色木门开启了2005年度长安俱乐部的首次商务例会。一团团红色的火焰燃烧象征着长安俱乐部与所有参展公司红红火火，蒸蒸日上；一条条活泼可爱的红色金鱼无忧无虑地畅游，使每一位参加活动的会员感受着长安俱乐部生机勃勃的气息。优雅的晚装表演和热闹的抽奖，都令会员在这个红红火火的俱乐部中，享受着尊贵与辉煌。
位于北京东长安街毗邻天安门广场，王府井商业区的长安俱乐部于1993年投资兴建，一直服务于政府高级官员和重要国际友人。1996年正式对外吸纳第一批创始会员， 不到1000组的会藉以固定资产的形式8年中每年都在递增。长安俱乐部是由以管理世界上高级俱乐部而闻名的CCA国际管理集团管理。八年过去了，长安俱乐部已成为京城的首要会议场所、商务运作和建立长期持久合作关系的一座重要桥梁。自从其建成之始，集团董事长，中国首席女富豪陈丽华女士就将其发展方向定位为中国的头号高档商务俱乐部。
20余家参展商都将公司最优秀的产品与项目，传统的企业文化，经营理念展示给每一个参会的会员。商务交流洽谈之后,众多会员一起就“寻找2005年的金矿”这一主题展开了论谈。会谈中,会员张民耕先生,鲁悦女士以及我们邀请到的嘉宾蔚强先生，张明涵先生对金融，风险投资和珠宝等行业的发展趋势与市场动向作了深刻的分析与交流。并与其它会员一起探讨在2005年何种行业,何种产业会带来无限商机并带来巨大的升值潜力。会员们各抒己见,将论坛的气氛一次又一次推向高潮。意犹未尽的论坛后,长安俱乐部总经理万吉伟先生隆重宣布：长安俱乐部个人会籍卡升值为USD18,000,公司会籍卡升值为USD20,000。
效率优先，兼顾公平，几乎成为20世纪70年代后期以来我国制定国家经济发展战略，尤其是区域发展战略的基本定律。应当说，中国的发展是“成功”的：改革开放以来，我国经济实现了持续高速增长，创造了20世纪世界经济的奇迹：GDP由1980年的4514亿元上升为2004年的近136500亿元，年均增长达9％以上，国家综合国力迈入国际六强行列；国际贸易额由1980年的380亿美元增加到2004年11547亿美元，进入全球前三；外汇储备，1980年仅29亿美元，2004年底达6099亿美元，坐二望一。
但是，或许是由于“摸着石头过河”的缘故，我们并没有预计到这种发展可能带来的严重负效应，或者说我们没有适时地调整发展模式，特别是我们可能在发展过程之中出现了“效率超重、公平失重”的偏误，导致我们的畅享发展成果的同时，确实面临着许多棘手的“发展问题”。在一些人看来，发展，特别是经济发展似乎就是现代化、也是现代化的终点，他们看重产出，特别是有形的产出，对投入和产出的分配关注甚少，从而导致了严重的环境问题、资源问题、生态问题以及社会问题。比如，我们的经济发展十分迅速，但是我们的社会发展、文化发展却相对严重滞后；我们的工业化发展迅速，但是城市化、服务产业的发展十分滞后（见表），第三产业和城市化水平比国际同水平国家低10－15个百分点；我们的社会财富急剧增加，但社会分配不公，贫富悬殊的问题日益严重，基尼系数由20世纪80年代初的0.25缓慢增加，90年代初为0.3，90年代末急剧扩大为0.45， 2002年为0.48，2003年为0.52，而国际公认的临界点仅仅是0.40；三农问题、城乡问题、区域问题，等等。
我国幅员辽阔，人口众多。我们不能期望实现我国社会经济发展的区域协调。因为区域经济发展的理论告诉我们，区域的发展均衡仅仅是一种“乌托邦”，不均衡才是真实地、现实的，也只有通过不均衡的发展才能够解决区域经济发展的不均衡问题：即通过新的不均衡来取代旧的不均衡。同时，审美学告诉人们，残缺才是最美的，断臂的维纳斯更让人欣赏。当然，这种残缺的痛苦也只有身处残缺之中的人才能够体味。
有一个人们熟知的故事：记者在西部一个偏远山村采访了一位正在放羊的孩子，记者问他：长大以后准备做什么？孩子回答：放羊、结婚、生小孩。记者再问：生了小孩以后准备让他干什么？这位牧羊童答道：放羊。信息给人视野、给人理想，信息给人以发展的期望。如果我们容忍这种信息鸿沟继续存在并扩大，我们就在践踏最基本的人权：生存与发展权。
Energy Price Shocks and Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy
Shih-Mo Lin Chung Yuan Christian University
This paper modifies a typical real business cycle(RBC)model with indivisible labor by explicitly including energy as a productive input and modeling the relative price of energy as an exogenous random process. In closed models, the production technology of firms is described by alternative specifications, which include Cobb-Douglas, regular CES and nested CES functions, respectively. Our simulation results show that, no matter what production function is, energy consumption and employment are pro-cycle, and oil prices are counter-cycle. When a positive energy price shocks occurs, energy consumption and employment all appear to be negatively affected. Furthermore, in the long run, this shock will cause the employment to rise higher than its initial steady state. From the results of simulation in the open economy model, we find that energy consumption, net exports and employment are pro-cyclical, and oil price is counter-cyclical. When a positive energy price shock happened, it has a negative influence on energy consumption, output, net exports and employment, and a positive influence on investment. When a negative world interest rate shock happened, it has a negative influence on energy consumption, output and employment, and a positive influence on net exports.
East Asia Monetary Cooperation: Progress and Prospects
Lu, Ding
Since the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-98, regional monetary cooperation involving ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea) countries has made important progress, highlighted by the Chiang Mai Initiative (2000), a currency swap agreement among these economies, and the Asian Bond Initiative (2002). Meanwhile, regional economic integration has gained great impetus from the free trade pact between ASEAN and China. This paper reviews the progress of East Asia monetary cooperation and the prospects for such cooperation to move towards greater monetary-finance integration. In particular, we will discuss the pros and cons for the regional economies to form a monetary union as they tear down intra-region trade barriers through free trade agreements. According to the thesis of Optimal Currency Area, cost-benefit analysis of monetary union largely depends on whether the shocks in the union zone are symmetric or not and on the degree of intra-region labour mobility. Economic integration will certainly enhance intra-region specialization as well as factor mobility. It is, however, controversial whether the net effect will make the region more suitable for a monetary union. Based on the review of relevant literature, this paper will present some preliminary empirical evidence and explore the ways of further research.
Developing Energy Security and Cooperation in Asia
Katsuhiko Suetsugu
Secretary General, Asia-Pacific Energy Forum
To enhance the energy security in Asia, it is important to clarify the policy goals for the energy security. China's continuing economic growth and increasing energy demand, increasing oil consumption in the US market are the factors to be considered for the energy security policies. Most of the countries in Asia are importing petroleum from Middle East by ships and transportation by sea-lane, which needs to be secured for the stable economic growth of each member economy. In addition to this, geopolitical, military and diplomatic factors in Asia should be addressed to minimizing the new risks for the energy security in this region.
It is essential that China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN countries would cooperate to create the guideline for the collective energy security in this region including capacity of energy supply, strategic stockpile of oil, formation of market mechanism, and better technology transfer. The risks of climate change resulting from energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and the energy crisis have been overlapping these days. It is mandatory that the policies for energy security need to be designed to reduce each nation誷 emissions of greenhouse gases and protect its natural environment.
Japan would like to contribute Asian energy security by enabling nuclear power to continue to play a meaningful role in meeting future energy needs, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
长安开门红，开门红世界
4月16日,众多长安俱乐部会员及十余家知名企业云集长安俱乐部，共同见证了长安俱乐部又一次辉煌腾飞。
两扇古老的朱红色木门开启了2005年度长安俱乐部的首次商务例会。一团团红色的火焰燃烧象征着长安俱乐部与所有参展公司红红火火，蒸蒸日上；一条条活泼可爱的红色金鱼无忧无虑地畅游，使每一位参加活动的会员感受着长安俱乐部生机勃勃的气息。优雅的晚装表演和热闹的抽奖，都令会员在这个红红火火的俱乐部中，享受着尊贵与辉煌。
位于北京东长安街毗邻天安门广场，王府井商业区的长安俱乐部于1993年投资兴建，一直服务于政府高级官员和重要国际友人。1996年正式对外吸纳第一批创始会员， 不到1000组的会藉以固定资产的形式8年中每年都在递增。长安俱乐部是由以管理世界上高级俱乐部而闻名的CCA国际管理集团管理。八年过去了，长安俱乐部已成为京城的首要会议场所、商务运作和建立长期持久合作关系的一座重要桥梁。自从其建成之始，集团董事长，中国首席女富豪陈丽华女士就将其发展方向定位为中国的头号高档商务俱乐部。
20余家参展商都将公司最优秀的产品与项目，传统的企业文化，经营理念展示给每一个参会的会员。商务交流洽谈之后,众多会员一起就“寻找2005年的金矿”这一主题展开了论谈。会谈中,会员张民耕先生,鲁悦女士以及我们邀请到的嘉宾蔚强先生，张明涵先生对金融，风险投资和珠宝等行业的发展趋势与市场动向作了深刻的分析与交流。并与其它会员一起探讨在2005年何种行业,何种产业会带来无限商机并带来巨大的升值潜力。会员们各抒己见,将论坛的气氛一次又一次推向高潮。意犹未尽的论坛后,长安俱乐部总经理万吉伟先生隆重宣布：长安俱乐部个人会籍卡升值为USD18,000,公司会籍卡升值为USD20,000。