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根据某地１９６０～１９８８年洪涝灾害的资料，应用贝叶斯准则预测了该地４～９月的洪涝发生趋势。通过１９６０～１９８８年资料的回报，拟合率达９６．５５％。并对１９８９～１９９１年的洪涝趋势进行了试报，取得了满意的效果。
According to the data of flood disasters in a certain area from 1960 to 1988, the trend of flood occurrence from April to September in this area was predicted by the Bayesian criterion. Through the data return from 1960 to 1988, the fitting rate reached 96.55%. The floods from 1989 to 1991 were tested and the results were satisfactory.