为研究极端降水条件下梯级水库的溃坝概率,结合JC法,建立了梯级水库溃坝概率分析模型,拟合了极端降水条件下的洪水过程线,并以清江流域水布垭—隔河岩梯级水库为例进行了研究。结果表明,极端降水发生于梯级水库上游时,溃坝概率较高,且极端降水条件下,各梯级水库溃坝概率之间相互影响。研究结果为极端降水条件下梯级水库的溃坝安全维护提供了理论指导。 In order to study the probability of dam failure of cascade reservoirs under extreme rainfall conditions, a probabilistic analysis model of cascade dam failure was established by JC method, and the flood process curves under extreme precipitation conditions were fitted. Taking the Shuibuya - Geheyan Cascade reservoirs as an example were studied. The results show that the probability of dam failure is high when extreme precipitation occurs upstream of cascade reservoirs and the probability of dam failure of cascaded reservoirs is affected by extreme precipitation. The results provide theoretical guidance for the dam maintenance of rung reservoirs under extreme precipitation conditions.