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开展严格而客观的地震灾害风险评估与真实地震活动对比测试,是进行任何负责任的地震灾害风险评估的必要前提。针对意大利境内实际发生的地震活动,将经典概率性方法(PSHA)得到的意大利抗震标准的参考灾害图与基于新的确定性方法(NDSHA)获取的可供参考的地震动图进行了交叉对比和测试。通过对大量可能地震的真实地面运动的模拟,结果表明,NDSHA方法可以给出可靠的设计地震的合理定义。NDSHA的灵活性可用于解释地震复发周期性,并可用于产出特定复发周期的地面运动图,以便与PSHA方法所获取的地面运动图进行直接对比分析。
Conducting a rigorous and objective comparison of seismic disaster risk assessment with true seismic activity is a necessary prerequisite for any responsible risk assessment of earthquake hazards. In view of the actual seismic activity in Italy, the reference hazard map of the Italian seismic standard obtained by the classical probability method (PSHA) is compared with the reference seismic map obtained based on the new deterministic method (NDSHA) and test. The simulation of real ground motion for a large number of possible earthquakes shows that the NDSHA method can give a sound definition of a reliable design earthquake. The flexibility of NDSHA can be used to explain the periodicity of earthquake recurrences and can be used to generate ground motion maps for specific recurrence cycles for direct comparative analysis with ground motion maps acquired by the PSHA method.