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粮食价格支持政策是我国稳定粮食供给的重要调控政策之一。本文利用2000-2013年中国小麦、稻谷和玉米价格、产量、需求量等数据,构建了以供需、成本和政策因素为主要解释变量的主粮产销区面板数据模型,通过在模型中引入虚拟变量和交叉变量,研究了价格支持政策对三种主粮市场价格的托市效应和产销区区域效应。研究发现,主粮价格支持政策起到了一定程度的托市作用,并且政策覆盖范围越广、执行力度越强,托市效应越明显;主粮价格支持政策在产销区的效应不存在显著的地区差异,表明该政策并未实现对粮食主产区的利益补偿,反而加大了主粮区域性供求矛盾,致使部分主销区主粮价格过高。最后,提出通过适当规模经营降低粮食生产成本;逐步建立发挥市场机制的粮食价格支持政策;继续加大对粮食主产区的补贴等政策建议。
Food price support policy is one of the important regulatory policies to stabilize food supply in our country. Based on the data of price, output and demand of wheat, rice and maize from 2000 to 2013 in China, this paper builds a data model of main grain production and marketing area with supply and demand, cost and policy as the main explanatory variables. By introducing dummy variables and Crossover variables, studied the market-supporting effect of the price support policy on the market prices of three kinds of staple foods and the regional effects of the production and sales areas. The study found that staple food price support policy played a role in propping up the market to a certain extent, and the broader the policy coverage, the stronger the enforcement, the more obvious the prop up the market effect; there is no significant regional difference in the effect of the staple food price support policy in the production and sales area, Indicating that the policy did not achieve the interests of the main grain-producing areas of compensation, but increased the staple of regional supply and demand contradictions, resulting in some of the main sales area staple food prices are too high. Finally, we propose to reduce the grain production cost through proper scale management, gradually establish the food price support policy of giving play to the market mechanism, and continue to increase the subsidies for the main grain-producing areas.