论文部分内容阅读
Abstract ： Theory research and model analysis prove that the non-trade nature of service production makes US economy forms anti-trade tendency growth during the industrial structure-preferred adjustment of service production. To conclude， the deficit of the US current items is structural， and has causality with the relative price of goods when domestic industry-orientated change.
Key words ：US economy，Trade Effect
I. Introduction
Most papers researched the US economic
imbalance reasons and its solutions based on the open macroeconomic current account Equilibrium equation （NX=S-I） in method， which basically formed three mainstream analysis paradigm （Bagnai， Alberto， 2008）.
Firstly， US imbalance was attributed to U.S. savings insufficient （Roubini and Setser， 2004， 2005，Cline， 2005，Feldstein， 2008，2011）， or to the savings difference between east Asia and U.S. （LiYang etc， 2006， LiXiangYang， 2006） according to savings - investment analysis method and on the perspective of balance between national savings and investment. Another opinion considered that U.S. current account deficit would be sustainable because Asian countries need to keep the trade surplus to U.S. to solve their employment problems， and thus they would be glad to finance for U.S. current account （Dooley et al.， 2003）.
Secondly， US imbalance was attributed to policy orientation according to payment balance or elasticity analysis method and on the perspective of international trade flow balance. Most of studies attributed the reasons to Asian countries' export orientation policies （Dooley et al. 2005， Durdu， Mendoza， and Terrones， 2009）， while another analysis attributed the reasons to China's subsidies for current exports and U.S.'s subsidies for future exports （Deardorff， 2010）.
Thirdly， according to portfolio analysis method and on the perspective of balance between international financial assets flow and stock， as long as saving surplus countries regard U.S. as attractive investment alternative sites， U.S. would have no risks of overseas savings shortage （Cooper， 2006. Caballero et al. ， 2006）.
Through the description above， the first and the third methods emphasized the supply factors of US economic imbalance， but the analysis of savings （supply） went beyond the research of produce， while how much to produce， what to produce and how to produce were closely related to payment balance. The second method referred to the policy level on the problem's causes， which is most advocated currently. But it tended to emphasize the imbalance's currency factor which met the partial policy direction and shorten objectives and neglected the problems of trade imbalance's competitive power and structure. II. The US Service Production Trade Effect： Quantitative Test
For further inspect the relationship between the US service production and goods trade deficit， the author will establish quantitative economy model as formula （1） to do a regression test with Eviews 6.0 software.
Yt=c+αXt+βZt+ε（1）
In the above formula （5）， except for the
constant term （c） and random term （e）， the other variables correspond with the trade conditions which are showed as the proportion as follows：
Yt=■ Xt=■ Zt=■（2）
Yt shows the goods trade deficit which is caused by service production， Xt means the goods production level correspond with unit， and Zt stands for goods trade condition which is expressed by import and export price index. According to the logic relationship between variables， the trade deficit will decrease with the growth of goods production if a is negative； while the trade deficit will increase with the ascend of goods export price when β is positive.
The sample period is between 1987-2009 in the regression analysis， and all the values of formula （1） such as service production（SGDP）， goods production（GGDP）， and goods trade deficit（NX）， export price index （EXP） and import price index （IMP） are all calculated as the true values with the basis period of 2005.
For avoiding pseudo regression phe-
nomenon， the author did the following tests before he did regression test with formula （1）. Firstly， he applied Unit Roots Test to inspect the stability of sequence， and the results showed that Yt obeys 2 integrated of order， Xt and Zt obey 1 integrated of order. As a result， the author employed the first order difference of Yt to regress. Secondly， the author did a steady test of regression equation residual. The regression quotation residual serial correlation was tested by Q statistic and cointegration test， autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation. Thirdly， the causality between variables were tested with Pairwise Granger Causality Tests， whose result showed that X and Z cause Y， and the probability is 93% and 98% respectively.
△Yt=-0.0562-0.0736Xt+0.0901Zt（3）
The regression result of figure 1 shows that， R2， F value， P value， D-W value and other statistical values are are good. At the same time， the two index values of XDGDPGS and TTG are also achieved expected result. XDGDPGS stands for S and has relationship with goods import deficit， by which for service production， the goods trade deficit will reduce 0.07% when goods production increase 1%. Or we can say， according to the definition to X in formula （2）， for the goods production， the growth of service production will cause the growth of goods trade deficit. TTG stands for Z， and it is connected to goods import deficit， or for goods import price index， each one percentage increase of goods export price index will cause the growth of 0.09% of goods import deficit.
Regression Test Result
Key words ：US economy，Trade Effect
I. Introduction
Most papers researched the US economic
imbalance reasons and its solutions based on the open macroeconomic current account Equilibrium equation （NX=S-I） in method， which basically formed three mainstream analysis paradigm （Bagnai， Alberto， 2008）.
Firstly， US imbalance was attributed to U.S. savings insufficient （Roubini and Setser， 2004， 2005，Cline， 2005，Feldstein， 2008，2011）， or to the savings difference between east Asia and U.S. （LiYang etc， 2006， LiXiangYang， 2006） according to savings - investment analysis method and on the perspective of balance between national savings and investment. Another opinion considered that U.S. current account deficit would be sustainable because Asian countries need to keep the trade surplus to U.S. to solve their employment problems， and thus they would be glad to finance for U.S. current account （Dooley et al.， 2003）.
Secondly， US imbalance was attributed to policy orientation according to payment balance or elasticity analysis method and on the perspective of international trade flow balance. Most of studies attributed the reasons to Asian countries' export orientation policies （Dooley et al. 2005， Durdu， Mendoza， and Terrones， 2009）， while another analysis attributed the reasons to China's subsidies for current exports and U.S.'s subsidies for future exports （Deardorff， 2010）.
Thirdly， according to portfolio analysis method and on the perspective of balance between international financial assets flow and stock， as long as saving surplus countries regard U.S. as attractive investment alternative sites， U.S. would have no risks of overseas savings shortage （Cooper， 2006. Caballero et al. ， 2006）.
Through the description above， the first and the third methods emphasized the supply factors of US economic imbalance， but the analysis of savings （supply） went beyond the research of produce， while how much to produce， what to produce and how to produce were closely related to payment balance. The second method referred to the policy level on the problem's causes， which is most advocated currently. But it tended to emphasize the imbalance's currency factor which met the partial policy direction and shorten objectives and neglected the problems of trade imbalance's competitive power and structure. II. The US Service Production Trade Effect： Quantitative Test
For further inspect the relationship between the US service production and goods trade deficit， the author will establish quantitative economy model as formula （1） to do a regression test with Eviews 6.0 software.
Yt=c+αXt+βZt+ε（1）
In the above formula （5）， except for the
constant term （c） and random term （e）， the other variables correspond with the trade conditions which are showed as the proportion as follows：
Yt=■ Xt=■ Zt=■（2）
Yt shows the goods trade deficit which is caused by service production， Xt means the goods production level correspond with unit， and Zt stands for goods trade condition which is expressed by import and export price index. According to the logic relationship between variables， the trade deficit will decrease with the growth of goods production if a is negative； while the trade deficit will increase with the ascend of goods export price when β is positive.
The sample period is between 1987-2009 in the regression analysis， and all the values of formula （1） such as service production（SGDP）， goods production（GGDP）， and goods trade deficit（NX）， export price index （EXP） and import price index （IMP） are all calculated as the true values with the basis period of 2005.
For avoiding pseudo regression phe-
nomenon， the author did the following tests before he did regression test with formula （1）. Firstly， he applied Unit Roots Test to inspect the stability of sequence， and the results showed that Yt obeys 2 integrated of order， Xt and Zt obey 1 integrated of order. As a result， the author employed the first order difference of Yt to regress. Secondly， the author did a steady test of regression equation residual. The regression quotation residual serial correlation was tested by Q statistic and cointegration test， autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation. Thirdly， the causality between variables were tested with Pairwise Granger Causality Tests， whose result showed that X and Z cause Y， and the probability is 93% and 98% respectively.
△Yt=-0.0562-0.0736Xt+0.0901Zt（3）
The regression result of figure 1 shows that， R2， F value， P value， D-W value and other statistical values are are good. At the same time， the two index values of XDGDPGS and TTG are also achieved expected result. XDGDPGS stands for S and has relationship with goods import deficit， by which for service production， the goods trade deficit will reduce 0.07% when goods production increase 1%. Or we can say， according to the definition to X in formula （2）， for the goods production， the growth of service production will cause the growth of goods trade deficit. TTG stands for Z， and it is connected to goods import deficit， or for goods import price index， each one percentage increase of goods export price index will cause the growth of 0.09% of goods import deficit.