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利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)多个模式的模拟结果,对比再分析资料和青藏高原(下称高原)冻土图,评估了模式对当前(1986-2005年)高原冻土的模拟能力。在此基础上应用多模式集合平均结果,预估了未来不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)情景下高原地表层多年冻土的可能变化。结果表明:CMIP5耦合模式对高原冻土有一定的模拟能力,采用SFI地面冻结指数模型计算的当前地表层多年冻土分布与高原冻土图有较好的吻合,1986-2005年高原地表层平均多年冻土面积为127.5×10~4km~2;多模式集合预估结果显示,高原地表层多年冻土呈现区域性退化趋势,高原东部、南部及北部边缘地区冻土带退化较为明显,有从外围向西北部多年冻土区逐步退化的趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下未来50年地表层多年冻土面积分别减少约23.9×10~4km~2(20.8%)、33.5×10~4km~2(27.7%)、25.6×10~4km~2(21.1%)和43.5×10~4km~2(35.3%),到21世纪末期不同情景下多年冻土面积分别约为为91.4×10~4km~2、70.9×10~4km~2、72.8×10~4km~2和41.7×10~4km~2。
Based on the simulation results of the Fifth Coupling Model Comparison Program (CMIP5) and comparing the reanalysis data and the frozen map of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (hereinafter referred to as plateau), the simulation of the current (1986-2005) plateau frozen soil was conducted ability. Based on this, the average results of multi-model ensemble are used to predict the possible change of surface permafrost under the different scenarios of typical concentration paths (RCPs) in the future. The results show that the CMIP5 coupling model has some ability to simulate the plateau frozen soil. The current surface permafrost distribution calculated by the SFI ground freezing index model is in good agreement with the plateau frozen soil map. From 1986 to 2005, The permafrost area is 127.5 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2. The multi-model ensemble prediction shows that the permafrost in the plateau presents a regional degeneration trend. The degradation of permafrost in the eastern, southern and northern edge of the plateau is obvious, Peripheral to the northwestern part of the permafrost region gradually degenerated trend, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios the next 50 years the surface permafrost area decreased by about 23.9 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2 20.8%), 33.5 × 10 -4 km -2 (27.7%), 25.6 × 10 -4 km -2 (21.1%) and 43.5 × 10 -4 km -2 (35.3%). By the end of the 21st century, permafrost The area is about 91.4 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2, 70.9 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2, 72.8 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2 and 41.7 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2, respectively.